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Leaders | The new mortgage shock
新一轮的房贷冲击
英文部分选自经济学人20260926期社论版块
Leaders | The new mortgage shock
新一轮的房贷冲击
Why house prices may be in trouble
为何房价可能陷入困境
In a big serving of bad news, there are crumbs of comfort
坏消息铺天盖地，不幸中也有万幸
LIKE MANY politicians, Donald Trump dreams of having his cake and eating it. In January he told his cabinet that he wanted to make houses more affordable, but also “to drive housing prices up for people that own their homes”. A government that could do both would be a true cakeistocracy. In the real world, only homeowners have been gorging: house prices are near record highs in many rich countries. Homebuyers have gone hungry, especially after post-covid inflation pushed up bond yields in 2022-23, making mortgages more expensive.
像许多政客一样，唐纳德·特朗普梦想着鱼与熊掌兼得。今年1月，他曾对内阁成员表示，希望让更多人买得起房子，同时又要“让已经买了房的人看到房价上涨”。一个能同时做到这两点的政府，堪称真正的“鱼与熊掌兼得式政权”（cakeistocracy）。但在现实世界中，只有房产拥有者得到了好处，因为在许多富裕国家，房价已逼近历史高位。想要买房的人仍然望“房”兴叹，后新冠疫情时期的通胀在2022—2023年提高国债收益率之后，房贷成本也水涨船高。
注：have your cake and eat it (too): to have or do two good things at the same time that are impossible to have or do at the same time (Cambridge dictionary).
Now bond yields are rising again, and mortgage rates with them, as central banks raise interest rates to fight stubborn inflation while governments suffer from debt bloat and fiscal heartburn. The average rate on a new 30-year home loan in America is nudging 7%, up from a bit over 6% a year ago and nearly double what it was before the pandemic. Borrowing costs are rising in other wealthy countries, too. This time, however, the result may be lower house prices. This is something that, for all their cakeist proclivities, politicians should welcome.
如今，随着各国央行提高利率以对抗顽固的通胀，国债收益率再次攀升，房贷利率跟着上涨，同时各国政府背负的债务也越来越沉重，财政状况不堪重负。美国新发放的30年期住房贷款平均利率正逼近7%，在上一年略高于6%的基础上继续抬升，几乎达到疫情前的两倍。其他富裕国家的借贷成本也在上升。不过，这一次，结果可能是房价下跌。虽然看起来鱼和熊掌仅余其一，但这是政客们应该乐见的结果。
The latest bout of interest-rate rises is not yet as acute as the previous one. But the housing market today is less resilient than it was. As variable-rate mortgages have spread across the rich world, the prospect of higher monthly payments may deter buyers, particularly now that households have mostly run down their covid-era savings. Meanwhile, the supply of houses is up a bit compared with the 2010s.
目前来看，本轮加息暂时没有上一次那么急剧，但当下房地产市场的韧性不如从前。随着浮动利率房贷在富裕国家越来越普遍，更高的月供预期可能会让潜在购房者望而却步，更何况大多数家庭在疫情时期积累的储蓄已经所剩无几。与此同时，与2010年代相比，住房供应量也略有增加。
House prices are unlikely to fall much in nominal terms—they seldom do, outside deep recessions. Yet even a decline after adjusting for inflation could be a healthy digestive.
按名义价格计算，房价不太可能大幅下跌。除非发生严重的经济衰退，名义房价很少下跌。然而，即便通胀调整后房价出现下跌，也可能是一剂健康的“消食药”。
For a starter, if many people are unable to afford a home it weighs down the economy, especially in big cities that power 21st-century commerce. Although wage growth has comfortably outpaced inflation in America, the total cost of owning a home has grown even faster in recent years. Cheaper houses would be of particular benefit to first-time buyers, who often struggle to save enough for a down payment.
首先，如果许多人负担不起住房，经济就会受此拖累，尤其那些推动21世纪商业繁荣的大城市。尽管美国的工资增长已轻松跑赢通胀，但近年来拥有一套住房的总成本上涨得更快。房价更低，对首次购房者尤其有利，因为这一群体往往难攒够支付首付所需的钱。
Falling prices may also reanimate the housing market. In the past few years it has frozen rigid in places where fixed-rate mortgages remain popular, as they are in America. Homeowners there have clung on to their rock-bottom mortgage fixes, meaning that fewer homes have changed hands in the past four years than at any point since the global financial crisis of 2007-09. This has curbed economic dynamism by making people less willing to move elsewhere to seek better jobs. In today’s economy homeowners may at last prefer to sell now rather than wait for prices to fall further.
房价下跌还可能盘活房地产市场。过去几年，在美国等固定利率房贷仍为主流的国家和地区，房市已陷入僵局。房东们紧抓着锁定最低利率的固定房贷不放，过去四年内房屋易手量处于2007-09年全球金融危机以来的最低水平。这也抑制了经济活力，人们不愿意换房、搬家，到别处寻找更好的工作机会。在当前的经济环境下，房主可能终于意识到，与其继续等待房价进一步下跌，不如趁现在把房子卖掉。
The last benefit of a housing slump is to remind people that houses are a poor long-term investment. For decades governments have told households to treat their homes as saving vehicles, and in many countries lavished them with tax breaks. A house has virtues as an asset: investors can count on a premium on account of its illiquidity and it gives ordinary mortals access to financial leverage (setting aside the wild world of retail options trading).
房价低迷的最后一点好处，是提醒人们房子并不适合长期投资。数十年来，各国政府一直在引导家庭把自住房当作一种储蓄工具，许多国家的政府还为购房者提供了慷慨的税收优惠。当然，房子作为一种资产也有优势：由于房产难以迅速变现，投资者可以因此获得一定的流动性溢价。与此同时，房产也让普通人有机会使用金融杠杆进行投资。当然，炒期权的疯狂散户不在此列。
Yet treating your house as a financial asset violates some basic tenets of investing, which becomes apparent when prices fall. It is undiversified (unless you are a serial landlord), related risks are hard to hedge (insurance gets you only so far) and returns are highly correlated with your future income (a downturn could bring down both your wages and the value of your property). Plus the more a family’s finances are tied up in a home, the greater the NIMBY temptation to block development, which could dilute its value.
然而，把自住房当成一种金融资产，违背了投资的一些基本原则，特别是在房价下跌的时候，弊端格外突出。首先，它意味着把大部分鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里，除非你不断买房。其次，房产带来的风险是很难对冲的，保险能提供的保障很有限。更棘手的是，房产收益与你的收入经常同向驱动，经济下行期间工资收入和房产价值都会缩水。此外，家庭财富越是和房子绑定在一起，就越容易生出一种“邻避”的冲动——也就是要阻碍附近新住房的开发项目。毕竟，新住房可能压低自己房产的价值。
The causes of the latest rise in interest rates—inflation, debt, geopolitical tensions—are nothing to cheer. Its effect on house prices may offer some cake crumbs of comfort.
本轮加息，是通胀、债务和地缘政治紧张这些并不值得庆幸的因素在背后驱动。但其对房价的影响，或许可能是不幸中的万幸。
翻译组：
YY, 网球爱好者/外语学习者
Benjamin, 翻译和酒庄出口总得会一个
审校组：
Rex, the one who widens your horizon
衣然, No animal has more liberty than the cat.
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