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Angela，心之所向，无问西东
#外刊精读 #考研英语 #CATTI
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Leaders | “The biggest oil deal in world history”
社论｜“世界历史上最大的石油交易”
英文部分选自经济学人20260829期社论版块
Leaders | “The biggest oil deal in world history”
社论｜“世界历史上最大的石油交易”
Donald Trump’s Venezuela deal is bold but dodgy
特朗普的委内瑞拉交易，行事大胆却疑点重重。
Worse, it creates incentives to block democracy
更糟的是，这笔交易让阻碍民主变得有利可图。
Oil made Venezuela rich. For decades it helped fund a stable democracy with the highest living standards in Latin America. The country was pumping 3.4m barrels a day when Hugo Chávez, a left-wing populist, was elected in 1998 on a promise to redirect petrodollars to the poor. Instead, under his corrupt, incompetent regime, the flows of oil and cash largely dried up. Under his chosen successor, Nicolás Maduro, the state went on a money-printing spree, sparked hyperinflation and drove a quarter of Venezuelans to emigrate.
委内瑞拉是靠石油富起来的。数十年来，石油收入支撑起了委内瑞拉稳定的民主体制，也让其拥有了拉丁美洲最高的生活水平。1998年，左翼民粹主义者乌戈·查韦斯（Hugo Chávez）凭借“石油美元扶贫”的承诺当选总统，彼时委内瑞拉原油每日产量达 340万桶。然而，在查韦斯腐败无能的政权统治下，石油与资金几近枯竭。查韦斯钦定的继任者尼古拉斯·马杜罗（Nicolás Maduro）上台后，国家大肆印钞，引发恶性通胀，迫使四分之一的委内瑞拉人移居海外。
Eight months ago, when Donald Trump had Mr Maduro snatched by special forces and dumped in a Brooklyn jail, Venezuelans cheered. Now Mr Trump has made a deal with the ex-despot’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, that both sides say will revive Venezuela’s oil industry. Mr Trump called it the “BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY”. He crowed that it would give America “energy dominance” (after his war of choice in Iran interrupted global supplies). The deal is certainly bold. It is also ugly.
八个月前，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）派特种部队抓捕马杜罗，将其关进布鲁克林一所监狱时，委内瑞拉民众曾为此欢呼雀跃。如今，特朗普与这位前统治者的副手德尔西·罗德里格斯（Delcy Rodríguez）达成协议，双方均称该协议将重振委内瑞拉石油产业。特朗普将其称作"世界历史上最大的石油交易"。他还得意地宣称，这将赋予美国“能源主导权”（此前他在伊朗挑起战争，扰乱了全球石油供应）。这笔交易很大胆，也很丑陋。
The regime has given North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), a private oil firm that was already the second-largest operating in Venezuela, the concessions to 17 oilfields containing some 65bn barrels. America, via the Pentagon, has been given, in exchange for its backing, a 35% stake in nabep and rights to its output. For the next century this guarantees America the right of first refusal to buy from oilfields which hold a fifth of Venezuelan oil reserves, with some of those purchases at a discount (see Americas section).
委内瑞拉政府已将17处油田（石油储量约 650 亿桶）的开采特许权授予北美蓝能伙伴公司（NABEP），这家私营油企原本便是委内瑞拉第二大石油公司。作为支持委内瑞拉现政权的回报，美国通过五角大楼获得了北美蓝能伙伴35% 的股权，同时还获得了获取其石油产出相关权利，未来一百年，美国都将享有这些油田产出石油的优先购买权，这些油田蕴藏的石油约占委内瑞拉石油储量的五分之一，其中部分采购，美方还可享受折扣（详见美洲版块文章）。
The idea is that nabep will pump more oil and Uncle Sam’s involvement will give other investors confidence to sink long-term capital into a country they previously shunned. Ms Rodríguez, now Venezuela’s Trump-approved interim president, says the project could eventually yield more than 1.5m barrels per day. If she is right, it would push Venezuela’s output to 2.5m, three-quarters of pre-Chávez levels.
其设想是，北美蓝能伙伴将增加石油产量，而美国政府的参与，会增强其他投资者的信心，促使他们向这个此前避而远之的国家投入长期资本。如今，在特朗普的支持下，委内瑞拉临时总统罗德里格斯表示，该项目最终可能实现日产超过150万桶石油。如果她的判断正确，委内瑞拉的石油日产量将达到250万桶，相当于查韦斯执政前产量的四分之三。
However, she offers no clear timeline, nor much hint of who will stump up the staggering amounts of cash such an expansion would require. And the deal comes with warning lights flashing red. First, it was negotiated with an illegitimate regime that stole the most recent election. Second, Mr Trump’s chosen private partner, Alejandro Betancourt, NABEP’s boss, is reviled by some in Venezuela for the moral flexibility that let him get rich working with the regime. Third, Mr Trump will surely enrage Venezuelans with his imperialist bragging: on September 1st he said he would take all of the country’s oil.
然而，她既没有给出明确的时间表，也没有说清楚如此大规模的扩产所需的惊人资金将由谁买单。而且，这笔交易本身也有问题。第一，这项协议的谈判对象是通过操纵选举上台的非法政权。第二，特朗普选定的私人合作伙伴，也就是北美蓝能伙伴的老板亚历杭德罗·贝坦库尔特，在委内瑞拉受到一些人的强烈憎恶，因为他毫无道德原则地与该政权合作，并借此发家致富。第三，特朗普帝国主义式的吹嘘无疑会激怒委内瑞拉民众：9月1日他声称自己将接管委内瑞拉所有的石油。
Any future, freely elected government of Venezuela might question a deal which gives America so much control of the country’s oil. That fact will make investors hesitate. Oil majors remain wary, though Chevron, which was already in Venezuela, has just announced a separate $7bn investment.
未来任何经自由选举产生的委内瑞拉政府，都可能会对这样一纸协议提出质疑，因为它让美国获得了对委内瑞拉石油太大的控制权。这一事实将使投资者有所顾虑。大型石油公司依然保持谨慎，不过，此前已在委内瑞拉开展业务的雪佛龙（Chevron）刚刚宣布了一笔70亿美元的独立投资。
Worse, cash and tax revenue from the deal create incentives for powerful people to block Venezuela’s transition to democracy. Mr Betancourt, who is well-connected in both Caracas and Mar-a-Lago, has every reason to whisper to Mr Trump that a rush to free elections could spoil his oil bonanza. Ms Rodríguez will no doubt reinforce this message.
更令人担忧的是，这笔交易带来的现金流和税收收入，可能会让一些有权势的人萌生阻挠委内瑞拉民主转型的念头。贝坦库尔特先生在加拉加斯和海湖庄园两边都颇有人脉，因此，他完全有理由向特朗普吹风，劝他不要急于举行自由选举，免得搅黄这场石油盛宴。罗德里格斯无疑也会传递同样的信息。
In background briefings American officials insist that Venezuela’s transition to democracy will continue. And some within the administration, such as Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, clearly understand that a democratic Venezuela is both desirable and in America’s interest. So there is still hope. America could in theory use its power over NABEP to press for transparent competition in Venezuela’s oil industry. This, in turn, would allow the opposition to campaign on a platform that does not undermine the deal. But all this depends on Mr Trump. Ominously, in public he has started to refer to Ms Rodríguez as Venezuela’s “president-elect”.
在情况说明会上，美国官员一再强调，委内瑞拉的民主转型仍将继续。国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥等部分美国政府内部人士显然也明白，一个民主的委内瑞拉不仅符合美国的利益，而且本身也是值得追求的目标。因此，希望仍存。理论上，美国可以利用其对北美蓝能伙伴的影响力，推动委内瑞拉石油行业进行透明的竞争。这样一来，反对派就可以在不损害这笔交易的基础上开展竞选活动。但这能否实现，都取决于特朗普的选择。令人担忧的是，他最近已经开始在公开场合称罗德里格斯为委内瑞拉的“当选总统”。
翻译组：
Mai,做有意义的事，做有意思的人
Yuqing，已识乾坤大，犹怜草木青
Leon, loyal to what matters, open to what comes
审校组：
Rex, the one who widens your horizon
衣然 No animal has more liberty than the cat.
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